The 2026 picture
- $7.22B 2024 baseline — single-digit growth expected for 2025
- 305.5M December 2025 visits — momentum still climbing into 2026
- UK OSA & EU AVMSD compliance costs are the biggest unknown
- Italy & Spain overtaking the historic European mid-tier markets
- 4.6M+ creator accounts — supply continues to scale despite tighter moderation
State of play, May 2026
Six months into calendar 2026, the most concrete data we have for OnlyFans comes from the FY2024 audited filing ($7.22B gross fan payments, 4.63M creators, 377.5M fan accounts) and from Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 traffic panels (Similarweb, Sensor Tower). The picture is consistent: growth continues, but the pace has slowed. Revenue grew 9% in 2024 vs. 19% in 2023 — and traffic-side proxies suggest 2025 followed the same single-digit trajectory.
The bigger story for 2026 isn't the headline numbers, it's the structural changes. Compliance costs are rising, regulatory frameworks are tightening, and the geographic mix of fan spend is broadening beyond the historic US/UK concentration.
Regulatory pressure
Three regulatory tracks matter most in 2026:
- UK Online Safety Act — full enforcement underway, with age-verification requirements that have already prompted competing platforms to adjust UK access. OnlyFans has been UK-compliant longer than most peers, but enforcement scrutiny is rising.
- EU AVMSD & DSA — content moderation transparency reports are now mandatory; the platform's NCMEC reporting practice positions it well, but obligations continue to expand.
- US state-level age-verification laws — Texas, Utah, Louisiana and others now require age verification for adult platforms; some platforms have geo-blocked rather than comply. OnlyFans's response so far has been compliance, not retreat.
None of these by itself is existential, but cumulatively they shift the cost structure. That's part of why FY2024 profit growth (4%) lagged revenue growth (9%) — and why we expect FY2025 to show the same compression.
Growth trajectory
Both core supply and demand metrics continue to expand:
Market dynamics to watch
The US still drives ~37% of global spend ($2.64B in 2025), but the marginal growth is now coming from Italy (+24%), Spain (+26%), and Mexico (+19%). Three reasons:
- Mobile penetration: 84.1% of all OnlyFans visits are mobile globally — and southern European countries with relatively late smartphone-payment adoption are now catching up.
- Local language creators: the platform's recommendation systems have become noticeably better at surfacing same-country creators since 2023.
- Subscription normalization: Spotify, Netflix, and Disney+ have already trained these markets to pay monthly for digital content; OnlyFans benefits from the rails.
What could derail this
Three near-term risks worth tracking:
- Payment processing. OnlyFans has historically had bank-relationship fragility — Visa/Mastercard policy changes have affected the platform before. A renewed processor squeeze is the single most existential near-term risk.
- Regulatory de-listing. A major market geo-restricting access (as some US states have done with competitors) would meaningfully dent revenue.
- Top-creator flight. Several mid-tier platforms (Fansly, Fanvue) have improved enough to be credible alternatives for the top 1% of creators. So far OnlyFans's network effects have held; that could change.
Sources
- [FENIX-2024] Fenix International Ltd — UK Companies House FY2024 audited filing.
- [SIMWEB-2025] Similarweb — Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 traffic panels.
- [SENSOR-2025] Sensor Tower — country spend estimates.
- [OFCOM-2025] UK Ofcom — Online Safety Act enforcement updates.